SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – May 16, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Wednesday, U.S. grain futures continued to decline. The July SRW wheat contract closed at $6.66/bu ($245/mt; down 1.0% compared to Tuesday). The September Euronext wheat contract rose to €250.75/mt ($273/mt; up 0.4%). The July U.S. corn contract closed at $4.62/bu ($182/mt; down 1.1%).

Pressure on U.S. futures may have come from farmer sales and positive expectations from the U.S. Wheat Tour results.

Corn planting acreage in France could reach 1.4 million hectares, according to the country’s Ministry of Agriculture. The planting area is expected to be 10% higher than last year but 5% below the five-year average.

SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2024 to 85.7 MMT, anticipating a crop 1.0 MMT below the five-year average. The estimate was revised due to weather anomalies in the Center and South of Russia.

Next week, dry and cold weather is expected in Argentina’s main agricultural regions, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The cold spell may slow down the spread of insects that carry diseases harmful to corn crops.

Data on grain exports from the EU have not been published since the end of March, Bloomberg noted. European Commission representatives cited technical difficulties as the reason.

Monsoon rains in India are forecasted to begin on May 31, according to the country’s meteorological bureau.

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