Andrey Sizov
24.07.2024
SovEcon has raised its grain production forecast for July by 3.1 million metric tons (MMT) to 130.5 MMT. The estimate was revised due to improved prospects for winter and spring crops.
The wheat production forecast was additionally increased by 0.1 MMT to 84.2 MMT. In July, the forecast was raised by a total of 3.5 MMT, influenced by favorable weather for spring wheat in Siberia and the Urals and relatively high yields of winter wheat in the South.
The barley production forecast was raised by 0.7 MMT to 19.3 MMT, due to relatively high yields of winter barley in the South and favorable weather conditions in the Volga region.
However, the corn yield estimate was lowered by 1.2 MMT to 13.4 MMT due to dry and hot weather in the South. Major weather models predict that this unfavorable weather will continue, increasing the likelihood of further reductions in the forecast.
Overall, the improved prospects for the new grain crop, particularly wheat in Russia, may exert some pressure on global prices.
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