The Black Sea 20/21 round-up: Good wheat crop and exports despite a disappointing start
The start of the 2020 wheat harvest campaign around the Black Sea was a disaster. Both Russia and Ukraine were reporting yields around 30% lower than a year ago after a prolonged dryness period in spring which damaged crops in the region substantially.
Russia’s wheat prices continue to rise; September exports could set a new record
Last week, 12.5% Russia’s wheat prices in deep-sea ports rose sharply, by $8, to $222/mt. The market was supported by strong demand from importers. Russian wheat starts to lose its competitive edge after the recent rally.
Russia planted record-high 29.4 mln ha of wheat
SovEcon has analyzed eagerly anticipated official data on the pre-harvest wheat area in Russia released by Russia’s statistical agency Rosstat on July 24.
Starting wheat yields in Russia are -45% YoY
Russia started to harvest the new winter wheat crop. Starting yields are low. As of June 29, the average yield is only 2.4 mt/ha (4.4 mt/ha a year ago).
USA lost Chinese corn market even before the trade war thanks to Ukraine, fast-growing Black Sea exporter
USA lost Chinese corn market years ago to Ukraine, which exports rose six times in last 10 years. This year the country is expected to harvest another bumper corn crop.
Russian wheat traders face a tough start to the season
Russia’s traders face a tough start of the new export season. Farmers remain slow sellers, the ruble is strong and new crop outlook is deteriorating. July wheat exports are projected at 3.1 MMT, -18% YoY.
Russian wheat prices remain flat despite volatile global benchmarks
In June, Russian export prices were mostly flat. 12.5% FOB remains slightly below $200/mt. On one hand, prices were supported …
Russian wheat crop forecast downgraded on weather
While the market closely watches rains in US, lack of them becoming an issue for the Black Sea. SovEcon downgrades Russian wheat crop.
2019 wheat production in Russia: outlook remains optimistic on ample rains and fast planting
The weather remains favorable for the new Russian wheat crop. In recent weeks almost all key regions received 100-150% of normal rains boosting the moisture reserves during the important period of the season.
Bumper Black Sea wheat crop ahead as local farmers describe the weather as “almost ideal”?
Wheat planted in Russia at a record pace and the weather is good. Will country harvest another bumper crop in 2019?