Andrey Sizov
15.05.2024
In May, SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2024 by 7.2 million metric tons (MMT) to 85.7 MMT, anticipating a crop 1.0 MMT below the five-year average. The revision was made due to weather anomalies in Central and Southern Russia.
Wheat production in the Central region is estimated at 19.3 MMT, (-2.0 MMT compared to last year); in the South, it is projected at 32.6 MMT, (-5.9 MMT); and in the Volga region, at 18.8 MMT (-0.2 MMT).
Dry weather has been the main reason for the reduced crop outlook in the South, with only 20-40% of normal precipitation in the last three months, coupled with temperatures above normal, leading to a moisture deficit.
In the Central region, significant crop damage was caused by frosts in early May, with temperatures dropping to -6 °C. Crops in the northern part of the Rostov region (South) also suffered, with temperatures reaching -3 °C.
According to SovEcon findings, Russian farmers have lost approximately 3.9 MMT of wheat, valued at around 45 billion rubles (approximately $0.5 billion USD).
Conditions for crop development in Russia have worsened significantly, which could provide support to the global market given the low crop prospects in Europe.
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