SovEcon lowers forecast for Russian wheat production due to weather anomalies

Weather anomalies in the Central and Southern regions of Russia have exacerbated conditions for crop development.

In May, SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2024 by 7.2 million metric tons (MMT) to 85.7 MMT, anticipating a crop 1.0 MMT below the five-year average. The revision was made due to weather anomalies in Central and Southern Russia.

Wheat production in the Central region is estimated at 19.3 MMT, (-2.0 MMT compared to last year); in the South, it is projected at 32.6 MMT, (-5.9 MMT); and in the Volga region, at 18.8 MMT (-0.2 MMT).

Dry weather has been the main reason for the reduced crop outlook in the South, with only 20-40% of normal precipitation in the last three months, coupled with temperatures above normal, leading to a moisture deficit.

In the Central region, significant crop damage was caused by frosts in early May, with temperatures dropping to -6 °C. Crops in the northern part of the Rostov region (South) also suffered, with temperatures reaching -3 °C.

According to SovEcon findings, Russian farmers have lost approximately 3.9 MMT of wheat, valued at around 45 billion rubles (approximately $0.5 billion USD).

Conditions for crop development in Russia have worsened significantly, which could provide support to the global market given the low crop prospects in Europe.

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