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The Black Sea 20/21 round-up: Good wheat crop and exports despite a disappointing start

The start of the 2020 wheat harvest campaign around the Black Sea was a disaster. Both Russia and Ukraine were reporting yields around 30% lower than a year ago after a prolonged dryness period in spring which damaged crops in the region substantially.

Russia’s wheat prices reverse, will Black Sea dryness help wheat bulls?

Last week, Russian wheat prices started to ease but dryness in the Black Sea should remain on the markets’ radar

Russia’s wheat prices continue to rise; September exports could set a new record

Last week, 12.5% Russia’s wheat prices in deep-sea ports rose sharply, by $8, to $222/mt. The market was supported by strong demand from importers. Russian wheat starts to lose its competitive edge after the recent rally.

Russian wheat prices below $200 again, big crop is getting bigger?

Last week, Russia’s 12.5% wheat prices in deep-sea ports fell $1 to $199/mt. The market remains under harvest pressure in Russia, weaker ruble also helps.

August WASDE report Black Sea commentary

USDA has just released the new WASDE report, here’s our quick commentary

Russia planted record-high 29.4 mln ha of wheat

SovEcon has analyzed eagerly anticipated official data on the pre-harvest wheat area in Russia released by Russia’s statistical agency Rosstat on July 24.

Will USDA up its Russia’s wheat crop forecast?

USDA cut its Russian wheat crop estimate by 0.5 mmt to 76.5 mmt in the July WASDE report. We expect it to up its fugure later, let us explain why.

Starting wheat yields in Russia are -45% YoY

Russia started to harvest the new winter wheat crop. Starting yields are low. As of June 29, the average yield is only 2.4 mt/ha (4.4 mt/ha a year ago).

Andrey Sizov speaks about Russian grain quota and food nationalism

Food export restrictions are being lifted all over the world but Russia keeps its grain quota and the AgMin wants to use it again in the future. Andrey Sizov from SovEcon talks about food nationalism and Russian grain quota perspectives in our video.

Andrey Sizov speaks about COVID-19 news and wheat market

Andrey Sizov from SovEcon speaks about COVID-19 news and the world wheat market. When the COVID-19 panic is over what could support the market? The answer is the weather.

Russia’s wheat export estimate cut on weak pace, endings stocks are still the lowest since 2007/08

* Wheat exports forecast is down again
* Ending stocks are estimated at 6.6 MMT, the lowest since 2007/08