SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – February 14, 2025

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Thursday, U.S. grain prices rose. The March wheat SRW contract closed at $5.78/bu ($212/mt; +0.6% compared to Wednesday). The March HRW wheat contract in Kansas rose to $5.98/bu ($220/mt; +1.1%). The March Euronext wheat contract closed at €231.00/mt ($242/mt; -0.4%). The March U.S. corn contract rose to $4.93/bu ($194/mt; +0.7%).

The Rosario Exchange lowered its 2024/25 Argentine corn production forecast by 2.0 million metric tons (mmt) to 46.0 mmt. Exchange analysts attributed the reduction to moisture deficits.

The share of Argentine corn crop in poor condition increased to 33% as of February 12, up from 26% a week earlier and 17% last year, Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported. The share of crop with insufficient moisture rose to 41% from 37% the previous week.

Brazil’s Conab raised its corn production forecast to 122.0 mmt from 119.6 mmt in January.

Saudi Arabia’s GFSA will hold a tender on February 14 for the purchase of 595,000 mt of wheat for delivery in May–July, according to European traders. Tender results are expected on February 17.

As of January 1, total wheat stocks amounted to 28.7 million metric tons (MMT), according to SovEcon based on quarterly Rosstat data. Stocks are 21% below last year’s level, with the gap widening from 14% in October. The increase of the gap is driven by active sales from agricultural producers.

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