Andrey Sizov
18.02.2025
Bids for 12.5% wheat in deep-sea ports fell to 17,300–17,800 rub/mt from 17,800–18,400 rub/mt the previous week, SovEcon reported. This marks the first drop in bids since the start of the year. Prices have decreased amid weakening demand from exporters.
Demand from exporters decreased following the introduction of an export tariff quota on February 15. Previously, traders rushed to move grain before quotas began, ensuring it wouldn’t count against their allocation.
The strengthening of the ruble has increased pressure on bids. On February 14, the Central Bank of Russia set the USDRUB rate at 91.0 (down 6.1% week-over-week).
Meanwhile, export quotes for wheat continued to rise. Last week, the quotes increased by $1 to $242–246 per metric ton FOB.
Despite higher FOB prices and lower transshipment rates, exporters’ margins remain deeply negative, which contributes to the slowdown in exports. SovEcon estimates wheat exports in February at 2.0 million metric tons compared to 4.1 million last year and an average of 2.9 million over the last five years.
In the near term, exports from Russia are expected to remain weak due to low profitability.
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