Andrey Sizov
19.02.2025
On Tuesday, U.S. grain futures rose. The March SRW wheat contract closed at $6.05 per bushel ($222/mt), up 0.8% from Friday. The March HRW wheat contract in Kansas City rose to $6.27 per bushel ($230/mt), up 1.0%. The March Euronext wheat contract closed at €229.75 per metric ton ($240/mt), up 0.1% from Monday. The March U.S. corn contract rose to $5.02 per bushel ($198/mt), up 1.2%.
Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon: “The grain market gained solid support from stronger-than-expected U.S. corn export numbers, which hit 1.6 million metric tons—well above the consensus range of 1.0-1.4 million metric tons. Meanwhile, weak wheat inspection data was largely overlooked. March corn climbed 5 ¾ cents to close at $5.02 per bushel, marking the front-month contract’s first settlement above $5 since October 2023. Concerns over a cold snap in the U.S. Plains and Central Russia remain in focus, though they appear largely priced in, with snow coverage improving in Russia. A lack of meaningful progress in U.S.-Russia talks may have also provided some support to wheat prices.”
As of February 16, wheat exports from the European Union in the current season totaled 13.3 million metric tons (mmt), down 36% from the previous year, according to data from the European Commission. Analysts at the commission caution that export figures for France and Italy in 2024 are not yet fully reported.
From October to January, precipitation levels in Turkey were 39.6% lower than a year earlier and 28.4% below the average. The moisture deficit may have significantly impacted winter crops, particularly wheat.
Bids for 12.5% wheat in deep-sea ports fell to 17,300–17,800 rub/mt from 17,800–18,400 rub/mt the previous week, SovEcon reported. This marks the first drop in bids since the start of the year. Prices have decreased amid weakening demand from exporters.
