Andrey Sizov
12.02.2025
As of January 1, total wheat stocks amounted to 28.7 million metric tons (MMT), according to SovEcon based on quarterly Rosstat data. Stocks are 21% below last year’s level, with the gap widening from 14% in October. The increase of the gap is driven by active sales from agricultural producers.
Total wheat stocks include data on on-farm and off-farm wheat stocks, excluding small companies.
Wheat stocks are notably lower than last year’s figures in all export regions. In the South, stocks are at 7.8 MMT, down 37% from last year; in the Center, they are at 6.3 MMT, down 32%; and in the Volga region, they stand at 6.4 MMT, down 17%.
The most significant reductions have occurred in on-farm wheat stocks. As of January 1 wheat stocks were 15.4 MMT, 29% below last year’s figures.
The on-farm wheat stocks are significantly below last year’s levels due to active sales. In December, farmers sold 4.8 MMT of wheat, up from 4.3 MMT a year earlier, despite a relatively low harvest.
Meanwhile, the off-farm wheat stocks remained at a relatively high level. As of January 1, wheat stocks were estimated at 13.3 MMT, down 9% from last year. Exporters purchased grain for future campaigns or in anticipation of price increases, while consumers actively bought grain fearing a shortage.
Stocks this season have significantly decreased compared to previous ones due to the relatively low production levels. Rosstat preliminarily estimated the 2024 wheat crop at 82.4 MMT compared to 92.8 MMT last year.
The reduction in stocks will support prices in both the global and Russian markets.
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