SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – April 11, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Wednesday, grain futures increased. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.58/bu ($205/mt; +0.1% compared to Tuesday). Euronext wheat prices jumped to €204.50/mt ($220/mt; +1.7%). U.S. corn closed at $4.34/bu ($171/mt; +0.7%).

The prices might have been supported by attacks on the Odesa region. According to local authorities, a missile strike targeted the region’s “transport infrastructure” on Wednesday evening, and drones attacked the region overnight into Thursday, with debris from one hitting an energy facility.

The rise in U.S. quotes was tempered by a strengthening U.S. dollar. The DXY index closed at 105.2 on Wednesday (+1.0% compared to Tuesday), the highest level since mid-November 2023. The dollar was supported by a consumer price increase in the U.S. that exceeded market expectations.

More information on key factors in the grain market can be found in the Ad Hoc Commentary for Sizov.Report subscribers. Subscribe to Sizov.Report and get the latest market news updates first.

The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina lowered its corn production forecast by 6.5 MMT to 50.5 MMT. Exchange analysts described the damage inflicted on crops by spiroplasma bacteria as unprecedented.

In the coming days, agricultural regions in Argentina are expected to receive 25-75 mm of rainfall with temperatures below normal, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Analysts say the heavy rainfall may slow the movement of cicadas that carry bacteria dangerous to crops.

Ukraine’s grain exports in March have decreased MoM, as per SovEcon estimate. Exports are declining amid a decreased supply and may drop further during the rest of the season.

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