Ukraine grain exports declining

March exports saw a MoM decrease due to lower supply, with the potential for further declines as the season progresses.

Grain exports from Ukraine totaled 5.2 million metric tons (MMT) in March, down from 5.8 MMT a month prior, as per SovEcon estimate. Exports included 2.1 MMT of wheat, a decrease from 2.6 MMT in the previous month, and 2.8 MMT of corn, down from 3.0 MMT. Exports are declining amid a decreased supply and may drop further during the rest of the season.

As of the beginning of April, corn prices at Odessa terminals rose to $170-180/MT FOB from $157-167/MT at the beginning of March. Producers are slowing down grain sales, likely anticipating higher prices.

From July to March, the primary of Ukrainian wheat were Spain (4.2 MMT), Egypt (1.2 MMT), and Romania (1.0 MMT). The leading destinations for corn were Spain (4.3 MMT), China (2.7 MMT), and Egypt (3.4 MMT).

Compared to the previous season, corn exports to China have decreased, with 4.2 MMT shipped from July to March.

Drone and missile strikes in the Odessa region pose additional risks but have not significantly impacted shipment rates.

Since the Ukrainian “grain corridor” began operation in September 2023, 25 MMT of agricultural products have been exported from Odessa terminals by April 8.

SovEcon projects exports of Ukraine’s three main grain crops for the 2023/24 season at 43.4 MMT, of which 80% has already been exported. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates grain exports at 42.8 MMT.

Ukraine’s grain exports are expected to drop sharply in the upcoming months because of small supply.

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