Russian wheat prices remain flat despite volatile global benchmarks

In June, Russian export prices were mostly flat. 12.5% FOB remains slightly below $200/mt. On one hand, prices were supported by a strong rally in Chicago, where SRW continue to rise rapidly supported by record slow planting of US corn. On another, the market remained under pressure of good crop outlook for the Black Sea region.

At the same time, as we mentioned earlier, weather conditions started to deteriorate in the Black Sea in late May due to lack of precipitation and high temperatures. In late May and early June, we downgraded new Russian wheat crop estimates a few times, from 83.4 MMT to 82.2 MMT and warned our clients about likely future cuts.

In June weather conditions remained unfavorable for the new wheat crop. It’s likely not to be an issue for Ukraine and Southern Russia which are harvesting new winter wheat crop. However, this may negatively affect yield potential in the Center and the Volga Valley. (We are issuing a new crop forecast next week).

So in early July, set up for the Black Sea wheat prices looks very different compared to what we saw a month ago. Chicago rally is over, at least for now, but the market now is much less optimistic about the new Black Sea crop.

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

Starting wheat yields in Russia are -45% YoY

Russia started to harvest the new winter wheat crop. Starting yields are low. As of June 29, the average yield is only 2.4 mt/ha (4.4 mt/ha a year ago).

Andrey Sizov speaks about Russian grain quota and food nationalism

Food export restrictions are being lifted all over the world but Russia keeps its grain quota and the AgMin wants to use it again in the future. Andrey Sizov from SovEcon talks about food nationalism and Russian grain quota perspectives in our video.

Andrey Sizov speaks about COVID-19 news and wheat market

Andrey Sizov from SovEcon speaks about COVID-19 news and the world wheat market. When the COVID-19 panic is over what could support the market? The answer is the weather.

Russia’s wheat export estimate cut on weak pace, endings stocks are still the lowest since 2007/08

* Wheat exports forecast is down again
* Ending stocks are estimated at 6.6 MMT, the lowest since 2007/08

Russian wheat export forecast cut on weak pace and low crop

The export forecast has been lowered again. The reason is the current weak pace and low crop figures for 2019, released by Rosstat in December.

Russia targets the Chinese soybeans market. Should American soybean farmers worry?

In October Russian President Vladimir Putin said that China is ready to buy as many soybeans as Russia can produce. …