Andrey Sizov
18.10.2024
On Thursday, grain futures continued to rise. The December SRW wheat contract closed at $5.89/bu ($217/mt), up 0.8% from Wednesday. The December HRW wheat contract in Kansas increased to $5.96/bu ($219/mt), up 1.3%. The December Euronext wheat contract closed at €230.25/mt ($255/mt), up 1.3%. The December U.S. corn contract rose to $4.07/bu ($160/mt), up 0.9%.
Andrey Sizov: “Agricultural markets rose following a report from Bild stating that Ukraine could obtain ‘nuclear weapons within weeks if needed.’ Additional support likely came from the closing of positions in the October soybean futures, as trading in that contract is coming to an end.”
A state of emergency has been declared in the Kursk region and the Republic of Kalmykia due to soil drought, local authorities report.
As of October 17, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 42.8 million mt from 85% of planted areas, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine. Wheat accounted for 22.3 million mt, corn for 13.2 million mt, and barley for 5.5 million mt.
As of October 17, Russia has allowed the transit of grain from Kazakhstan through its territory but temporarily restricted imports, according to an order by Anton Karamzin, head of the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance.
The USDA reported sales of 197,000 mt of corn to Mexico and 101,000 mt to unknown destinations.
The share of Argentine wheat crops in good or excellent condition increased to 66%, up from 62% the previous week and 53% last year.
The International Grains Council (IGC) left unchanged its forecasts for global wheat and corn production at 798 million mt and 1.224 billion mt, respectively.
SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russian wheat production to 81.5 million metric tons (MMT) from 82.9 MMT in the previous revision and 92.8 MMT last year. This marks the lowest production level since 2021, primarily due to a sharp decline in yields in Siberia.
