Andrey Sizov
15.08.2023
Wheat exports for the week ending August 10 amounted to 1.2 million metric tons (MMT), compared to 1.0 MMT a year earlier, as per SovEcon estimate. The last time figures climbed this high was in August 2021. Export pace continues to rise amid heightened activity of the exporters.
Exporter activity in August 2023 remains record-high. As of August 15, the amount of outstanding sales of Russian wheat reached 5.4 MMT, up from 1.0 MMT a year earlier. Active exporter sales are buoyed by the high marginality of Russian wheat.
In the near term, a slowdown in sales can be anticipated due to declining competitiveness of Russian wheat. The spread between Russian and French wheat narrowed from $51 at the end of July to $7 by mid-August.
SovEcon estimates August wheat exports at 4.8-5.1 MMT, 3.5 MMT a year earlier. The wheat export forecast for the season is set at 48.1 million tons.
The current record-high Russian export is a factor placing pressure on global prices. However, in the long run, sales rates might decrease.
