Weekly Russian wheat exports decline to February low

The exports declined amid the sluggish demand at the end of the export season.

Andrey Sizov 16.05.2023

Weekly exports of wheat from Russian ports dropped to 0.68 million metric tons (MMT) from 1.06 MMT a week earlier, as per SovEcon estimate. This marks the lowest export volume since the start of February. The exports declined amid the sluggish demand at the end of the export season.

The outstanding wheat sales, as of May 16, also saw a decline to 1.3 MMT from 1.8 MMT a week earlier, based on data from the National Commodity Exchange (NCE). Traders are required to report their transaction information to the NCE, which is used to calculate the export tax and indicative price.

The lower activity among traders may be attributed to the seasonal decline in demand for wheat, as many Russian wheat buyers are acquiring grain for shipment in the upcoming season.

Notably, the recent tender conducted by Egyptian company GASC revealed that 235 thousand metric tons (TMT) of Russian wheat, accounting for 44% of the total Russian wheat sold in the tender, will be shipped to Egypt in July (season 2023/24). Similarly, shipments resulting from the tender by Algerian company OAIC, which involved Russian wheat sellers as well, will also take place in July.

SovEcon analysts estimate Russian wheat exports for the season 2022/23 to reach 44.4 MMT, and the latest WASDE report by USDA aligns with this figure, providing a similar estimate of 44.5 MMT.

The current decline in Russian wheat exports is likely to be temporary, as Russia is expected to engage in active exports at the beginning of the new season, given the projected record-high stocks.