Andrey Sizov
09.05.2022
* The war continues, SE Ukraine remains the main battlefield. Contrary to expectations, President Putin didn’t shed any light on the future of the war today, on May 9
* Ukrainian ports remain blocked but the country gradually increases shipments by land – 0.8 mmt of corn and 0.1 mmt of wheat were exported in April. 3 times higher than actual March shipments, but <15% of max exports during peaceful times
* Situation around Odesa remains of concern -> more shelling->bigger risks for its massive grain infrastructure
* Russian April wheat exports are estimated at 2.2 mmt (+62% YOY, but close to average). Exports are exported to tank in May-June as traders are running out of quotas->resumption of shipments from Ukraine becomes more important
* Ukraine seeded 2 mln ha of corn (5 mln ac), -17% YOY despite the war. We expect the final area to be 4.4 mln ha (-20% YOY). The country remains dry but earlier precipitation helps
* Russia seeded 1.8 mln ha of spring wheat (+20% YOY) on drier weather
* Overall setup in the region is bullish for the global grain market
* Based on weekly Ukraine market note: https://sizov.report/reports/15424/ and Russian market note: https://sizov.report/reports/15406/
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