Ukraine’s grain exports to decline in the new season – SovEcon

Ukrainian exports are expected to decrease amid the significant reduction in supply.

SovEcon has estimated Ukrainian wheat exports for the 2024/25 season at 13.6 million metric tons (MMT), which is 25% lower than last year’s figures. Corn exports are estimated at 22.0 MMT, 23% below the previous year. Ukrainian exports in the new season are expected to decrease amid the significant reduction in supply.

Ukrainian wheat production in the new season is estimated at 20.4 MMT, down from 21.6 MMT last year, and corn production at 27.6 MMT, down from 31.0 MMT. The crop is expected to be lower than last year due to reduced corn planting areas and lower yields for both corn and wheat.

Carryover stocks in 2023/24 are expected to decrease to 0.9 MMT for wheat, down from 4.0 MMT a year earlier, and to 1.5 MMT for corn, down from 4.2 MMT. Carryover stocks have declined amid high export pace in the current season. SovEcon estimates Ukrainian wheat exports in 2023/24 at 18.2 MMT, and corn at 28.4 MMT.

Spain, Egypt, and China are among the largest importers of Ukrainian grain. In the past 11 months, Spain received 5.6 MMT of wheat and 5.3 MMT of corn, Egypt received 1.6 MMT of wheat and 3.5 MMT of corn, and China imported 4.6 MMT of corn.

Lower Ukraine’s grain export potential coupled with expected smaller Russian supplies could support the global grain market.

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