Russia started to harvest the new winter wheat crop. Starting yields are low. As of June 29, the average yield is only 2.4 mt/ha (4.4 mt/ha a year ago). Stavropol (#3 wheat region) – 2.2 mt/ha (3.4 mt/ha) from 383K ha, Krasnodar (#2 wheat grower) – 4.4 mt/ha (6.2 mt/ha) from 31K ha; Rostov (#1) – 2.7 mt/ha (3.5 mt/ha) from 144K ha.
The total harvested wheat area is 597K ha against 1.2 mln ha a year ago.
We expect yields to improve substantially in the next few days as currently, most suffered fields are likely to be harvested.
However, we feel that yields number could be below our expectations for parts of the South. We plan to issue a new forecast as soon as we have consistent yields figures, most likely in a few days. At this stage, yields data looks bullish.
The most recent SovEcon’s estimate of the Russian wheat crop is 82.7 MMT; Russia’s AgMin – 75 MMT; USDA – 77 MMT (ex. Crimea which is expected to harvest around 0.8 MMT).
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