Andrey Sizov
01.04.2025
Last week, bids for 12.5% wheat in Russian deep-sea ports rose to 17,600-18,000 rub/mt from 17,300-17,800 rub/mt, according to SovEcon. This marked the first increase since mid-February, supported by a rise in demand from exporters and limited supply.
Russian wheat supply is constrained due to relatively low stocks. As of March 1, wheat stocks in Russia totaled 11.6 million metric tons (MMT), 34% lower than last year. In the Southern export regions, stocks stood at 2.5 MMT, 56% less than the previous year.
Demand from traders increased amid higher export activity. Last week, 0.4 MMT of wheat was shipped compared to 0.3 MMT the week before. Market participants noted a shortage of wheat amid the arrival of vessels.
Quotes for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein decreased by $2 to $250–254/mt (FOB) amid a weakening global market.
Bidding prices in dollars rose to a multi-year high of $211/mt due to the strengthening of the ruble. Last Thursday, the exchange rate was 84.19 rubles per US dollar compared to 105.06 rubles a month earlier.
Amid rising ruble prices, the current export margin has again turned negative.
Given the current level of export and ruble prices, the supply of wheat from Russia in the near term is likely to be low, which may provide some support to global prices.
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