Andrey Sizov
28.03.2025
On Thursday, most grain futures declined. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.32/bu ($195/mt; -0.6% compared to Wednesday). The May HRW wheat contract in Kansas City rose to $5.66/bu ($208/mt; +0.2%). The May Euronext wheat contract closed at €218.25/mt ($236/mt; -1.7%). The May U.S. corn contract fell to $4.50/bu ($177/mt; -0.3%).
For the week ending March 20, U.S. exporters sold 100,300 metric tons of wheat for delivery in the 2024/25 season, within expectations of 0–550 tmt. Sales for 2025/26 amounted to 11,200 mt, below the forecast range of 100–300 tmt.
The European Commission estimated total wheat production in the EU at 126.5 million metric tons in the 2025/26 season, up from 111.8 million mt in the current season. Wheat exports next season are projected at 29.8 million mt, compared to 25.0 million mt this season.
The share of Argentina’s corn crop in poor condition increased to 26%, up from 24% the previous week and 25% a year ago, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2024/25 season by 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) to 40.7 MMT. This is lower than the 52.4 MMT shipped last year and the five-year average of 40.9 MMT. Russian wheat shipments have slowed due to low supply and negative exporter margins.
