Andrey Sizov
26.03.2025
Wheat futures declined Tuesday. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.43/bu ($200/mt; -0.9% compared to Monday). The May HRW wheat contract in Kansas City fell to $5.69/bu ($209/mt; -1.5%). The May Euronext wheat contract closed at €220.25/mt ($238/mt; -0.9%). The May U.S. corn contract dropped to $4.58/bu ($180/mt; -1.5%).
Following negotiations in Riyadh, the White House announced that agreements had been reached to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea. The U.S. also expressed readiness to support the restoration of Russian fertilizer and food exports to the global market. In turn, the Russian side reiterated its demand for the lifting of sanctions on Rosselkhozbank as well as on fertilizer producers and exporters in exchange for guarantees of maritime safety and a pledge not to use force in the Black Sea.
The EU’s crop monitoring agency MARS estimated the bloc’s soft wheat yield at 6.0 mt/ha, 8% above last year’s level.
From July 1 through March 23, EU soft wheat exports totaled 15.5 million metric tons (mmt), down from 23.7 mmt a year earlier, according to European Commission data. Analysts noted that France and Italy have yet to report complete export figures for 2024.
Jordan purchased 50 tmt of wheat from Bulgarian trading house Buildcom at $265/mt C&F in an international tender.
SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2024/25 season by 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) to 40.7 MMT. This is lower than the 52.4 MMT shipped last year and the five-year average of 40.9 MMT. Russian wheat shipments have slowed due to low supply and negative exporter margins.
