SovEcon upped Russian wheat export forecast to a new high

The new estimate is reflecting the record-high wheat sales.

SovEcon has increased its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2023/24 season by 0.5 million metric tons (MMT) to 48.6 MMT, according to its Exports and S&D Report. This year’s exports are expected to surpass last year’s record of 46.9 MMT. The new estimate is reflecting the record-high sales.

Wheat sales have reached a historic high. As of September 4, contracts for the sale of Russian wheat were estimated at 5.7 MMT, compared to 0.7 MMT the year prior.

The profitability of export operations remains high. By our estimates, traders can currently earn up to $10/mt, a sharp rise from just a few dollars not long ago.

SovEcon estimates the wheat crop in 2023/24 at 92.1 MMT. 

Active Russian exports could put pressure on global prices. According to our wheat S&D balance for the current season, Russia could export even more. However, infrastructure limitations have become the primary constraint.

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