Andrey Sizov
11.12.2024
SovEcon projects Russian wheat exports in December 2024 to range between 3.3 and 3.5 million metric tons (MMT), down from 4.1 MMT in November. The month-over-month drop of 17% in Russian wheat exports is attributed to reduced profitability.
In recent weeks, the profitability of wheat for exporters has decreased due to an increase in export taxes. Currently, the margin for exporters is negative, compared to about $10 a month ago. The export tax now stands at 4,872 rubles per metric ton ($47/mt), up from 2,569.2 rubles per metric ton ($26/mt) a month earlier.
Against this backdrop, sales of Russian wheat have slowed. On Monday, December 9, the volume of signed contracts reached 0.8 MMT, marking the lowest level since April.
Weather is also a limiting factor for exports. On December 10, a storm warning was issued in the Krasnodar region, potentially slowing shipment rates.
A year ago, in December, 3.2 MMT of wheat was shipped, with a five-year average of 3.5 MMT for the month.
SovEcon forecasts Russian wheat exports for the 2024/25 season at 44.1 MMT, while the USDA projects 48.0 MMT.
We believe the market may be overestimating Russia’s export volume for the current season and expect significant slowdowns in Russian exports to bolster global prices.
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