SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – May 28, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Monday, European wheat prices surged. The September Euronext wheat contract rose to €269.00/mt ($292/mt; +3.0%). The US market was closed for Memorial Day.

Prices were supported by a worsening outlook for the new crop in Russia.

Russia Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut stated that the ministry plans to introduce a federal state of emergency due to the May frosts. The duration of the state of emergency has not yet been determined. The Ministry does not plan to revise forecasts for grain production and exports despite the adverse weather conditions.

The EU’s crop monitoring service (MARS) lowered its forecast for 2024 soft wheat yield (to 5.92 mt/ha from 5.93 mt/ha in April) and rapeseed yield (to 3.21 mt/ha from 3.26 mt/ha). The barley and corn yield forecasts were raised to 5.13 mt/ha from 5.11 mt/ha and to 7.59 mt/ha from 7.57 mt/ha, respectively. All yield forecasts remain above the five-year average.

Egypt’s Minister of Planning Hala El-Said announced that the country plans to increase its wheat planting area to 3.5 million acres (1.42 million hectares) in the 2024/25 season from 3.2 million acres (1.29 million hectares) the previous year. This move is part of a plan to expand grain storage capacity to 5.2 mmt from 3.9 mmt the previous year.

Brazilian consultancy Datagro lowered its forecast for the 2023/24 soybean crop to 147.57 mmt from 147.96 mmt previously. The second corn crop forecast was reduced to 90.52 mmt from 91.86 mmt. The wheat forecast was cut due to floods in Rio Grande do Sul, while the corn forecast was lowered due to a lack of rain in Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná.

The Korea Feed Association (KFA) has announced an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 mt of feed corn for delivery from South America or South Africa, according to European traders.

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