SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – May 21, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Monday, wheat prices surged sharply. The July SRW wheat contract closed at $6.89/bu ($253/mt; up 5.7% compared to Thursday). The September Euronext wheat contract rose to €256.50/mt ($278/mt; up 4.0%). The July U.S. corn contract closed at $4.60/bu ($181/mt; up 1.8%).

The market was supported by worsening crop outlooks in countries around the Black Sea. In the coming week, Russia and Ukraine are expected to receive 40-60% of normal precipitation.

Corn planting in the U.S. is 70% complete, compared to the market estimate of 68% and the five-year average of 71%, according to USDA data. Spring wheat planting is 79% complete, compared to the market estimate of 76% and last year’s figure of 57%.

The condition of U.S. winter wheat crops deteriorated over the past week, notes the USDA. The share of crops in good/excellent condition fell by 1 percentage point to 49%. Market participants had expected an improvement of 1 percentage point to 51%.

For the week ending May 16, the U.S. exported 0.21 MMT of wheat, compared to the estimate of 0.30-0.50 MMT, reports the USDA. Corn exports exceeded analysts’ expectations, totaling 1.21 MMT against the estimate of 0.90-1.20 MMT.

Odesa region was attacked by drones again from Monday night to Tuesday. According to local authorities, all drones were shot down. Russian Telegram-channels claim, that the railway in Chornomorsk was attacked.

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