SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – May 17, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Thursday, U.S. grain futures continued to decline. The July SRW wheat contract closed at $6.63/bu ($244/mt; down 0.4% compared to Wednesday). The September Euronext wheat contract fell to €248.50/mt ($270/mt; down 0.9%). The July U.S. corn contract closed at $4.57/bu ($180/mt; down 1.2%).

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has preliminarily estimated the area of crops perished from frost at 830,000 hectares or 1% of the total sown area, Minister Oksana Lut said.

The U.S. Wheat Quality Council has estimated the yield of HRW wheat in Kansas at 46.5 bu/acre (3.13 t/ha), which is 10% higher than the five-year average. Kansas produces about 27% of U.S. winter wheat. On May 10, the USDA estimated Kansas yield at 38.0 bu/acre (2.56 t/ha).

Strategie Grains has raised its estimate for EU soft wheat production in 2024 by 1.7 MMT to 123.5 MMT due to improved crop prospects in Spain, Romania, and Bulgaria. Last year’s crop is estimated at 126.1 MMT.

Germany’s Federal Statistics Office has estimated the area under winter wheat to be harvested in 2024 at 2.6 million hectares, 8.3% lower than the previous year.

The share of Argentine corn crop in good to excellent condition is estimated at 54%, down from 58% the previous week and 47% last year.

The Argentine government has estimated the wheat planting area for the 2024/25 season at 6.16 million hectares, up from 5.9 million hectares the previous year.

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