Andrey Sizov
13.05.2024
On Friday, grain futures continued to rise. The July SRW wheat contract closed at $6.63/bu ($244/mt; up 4.1% compared to Thursday). The September Euronext wheat contract rose to €249.50/mt ($269/mt; up 1.9%). The July U.S. corn contract closed at $4.70/bu ($185/mt; up 2.9%).
Wheat prices closed at their highest level since August 2023, supported by unfavorable weather in key agricultural regions of Russia and bullish WASDE report.
The USDA released the WASDE report with initial 2024/25 supply and demand balances. Global wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 are estimated by the USDA at 253.6 MMT (down 3.8 MMT from market expectations), and corn at 312.3 MMT (down 5.5 MMT). U.S. wheat stocks are expected at 20.9 MMT (down 0.5 MMT), and corn at 53.4 MMT (down 4.6 MMT).
The USDA forecasts Russia’s wheat production at 88.0 MMT (down 3.5 MMT from the 2023/24 estimate), with exports expected at 52.0 MMT (down 1.5 MMT).
The USDA lowered its corn production estimates for Argentina and Brazil for 2023/24 by 2.0 MMT to 53.0 MMT and 122.0 MMT, respectively. These harvest estimates remain significantly higher than those forecasted by local analysts.
Over the past weekend, 3-10 mm of rain fell in some areas of Krasnodar and Stavropol. Weather models predict 15-25 mm of rain in the coming week for the drought-affected regions of Southern Russia.
Following the inauguration of President Vladimir Putin, the Russian government was reappointed. Dmitry Patrushev, formerly the Minister of Agriculture, will become Deputy Prime Minister in the new government. His former deputy, Oksana Lut, will take over as Minister of Agriculture.
The last vessel carrying wheat for the Egyptian company GASC, loaded by the company “Rodnye Polya” (formerly TD “Rif”), received a phytosanitary certificate, according to Reuters citing sources. According to maritime traffic analysis services, the vessel has left Novorossiysk and is en route to Egypt.
