SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – May 07, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Monday, wheat futures surged. The July SRW wheat contract closed at $6.49/bu ($238/mt; up 4.2% from Friday). The September Euronext wheat contract rose to €245.25/mt ($264/mt; up 4.4%). The July U.S. corn contract closed at $4.69/bu ($185/mt; up 1.9%).

U.S. wheat prices reached a December high, driven by bullish news from the Black Sea region. More information on this topic can be found in our Ad Hoc Commentary.

Ukraine’s grain exports from May 1 to 6 totaled 0.6 MMT, according to the country’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy. From April 1 to 5, the country exported 1.2 MMT of grain.

As of May 5, U.S. farmers had planted 36% of the intended corn acreage, compared to 42% last year and the 39% average. Conversely, spring wheat planting is ahead of the average—47% versus the five-year average of 31%.

On Friday, the USDA will release the WASDE report. Analysts expect the agency to lower its estimate for the South American corn crop. Analysts forecast Argentina’s corn production at 52.1 MMT (-2.9 MMT from the USDA’s April forecast) and Brazil’s at 122.4 MMT (-1.6 MMT).

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