SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – March 27, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Tuesday, grain futures declined. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.43/bu ($200/mt; -2.1% from Monday). Euronext wheat dropped to €201.00/mt ($218/mt; -1.7%). U.S. corn ended the day at $4.32/bu ($170/mt; -1.2%).

The USDA will release its report on U.S. grain and oilseed stocks on March 28th. The market’s average estimate for wheat stocks is 28.4 MMT (+14% from last year), and for corn, it’s 214.1 MMT (+11%), according to Reuters.

Since the start of the season, soft wheat exports from the EU have reached 22.8 MMT, down from 23.2 MMT a year earlier, as reported by the European Commission on March 23rd. Barley exports are estimated at 4.2 MMT, down from 4.8 MMT in 2022/23. The current data from the European Commission does not include export figures from Ireland, Bulgaria, and Hungary.

SovEcon has increased the wheat crop forecast by 0.4 MMT to 94.0 MMT, due to favorable weather conditions during the winter. However, in recent weeks, weather conditions have deteriorated, leading to a worsening of the crop’s condition.

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