SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – March 26, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Monday, U.S. grain futures were stable. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.55/bu ($204/mt; +0.1% from Friday). Euronext wheat dropped to €204.50/mt ($222/mt; -1.3%). U.S. corn ended the day at $4.38/bu ($172/mt; -0.4%).

French wheat futures bounced down after Friday’s sharp rise but closed above the 50DMA of €204.3/mt.

The European MARS center estimates the 2024/25 European wheat yield at 5.57 t/ha, 2% higher than last year. The center also notes that winter crops in the EU are in mediocre condition due to unfavorable weather conditions over the winter months.

Heavy rains in Argentina are hindering harvest operations and negatively affecting crop conditions. Last week, only 0.5% of the area was harvested compared to 1.1% the previous week. The share of crops in good to excellent condition decreased by 4 percentage points over the week to 79%, which is still 3 percentage points above the multi-year average.

Rosselkhoznadzor has suggested to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture to reallocate grain export quotas, reducing the share allocated to TD “RIF”. Rosselkhoznadzor claims that approximately 81% of the grain exported by the company does not meet the standards of importing countries. TD “RIF” reports that about 400,000 metric tons of grain for export are currently blocked in Russian ports.

A missile strike hit the Odesa region overnight from Monday to Tuesday. According to local authorities, civilian infrastructure was damaged, and some areas of the region remain without electricity following weekend shelling.

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