SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – March 21, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

Wheat futures declined on Wednesday. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.45/bu ($200/mt; -1.3% compared to Tuesday). May Euronext wheat dropped to €199.00/mt ($217/mt; -0.6%). May corn closed at $4.39/bu ($173/mt; -0.1%).

Analysts at Rosario exchange report that rains in key agricultural regions of Argentina have led to excess moisture in the soil, which could damage crops. The country’s national meteorological service notes that Argentina has received 15 to 50 mm of rainfall in the last 24 hours, with rains expected to continue in the coming days.

The grain traders’ association Coceral has lowered its forecast for wheat production in the EU and the UK for 2024 by 5.4 MMT to 134.1 MMT. Last season’s wheat harvest was estimated at 140.0 MMT. Coceral attributes the forecast reduction primarily to record rains that hindered planting late last year.

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture will not cancel the export duty on grain but is ready to adjust it at the start of the next season, stated the head of the ministry, Dmitry Patrushev.

Ukraine’s grain exports from March 1 to 20 amounted to 3.2 MMT, compared to 3.5 MMT during the same period last year, reports the country’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy.

Egypt’s GASC purchased 110,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender at a price of $234.5/mt FOB (with a 270-day payment deferral). Of this, 50,000 metric tons will be supplied from Bulgaria, and 60,000 metric tons from Romania. All Russian exporters offered wheat at a price of $240/mt FOB (270 days) and $235/mt FOB (180 days).

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