SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – March 13, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Tuesday, grain futures remained steady. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.47/bu ($201/mt; unchanged from Monday). May Euronext wheat remained at €196.75/mt ($215/mt; unchanged). U.S. corn closed at $4.42/bu ($174/mt; unchanged).

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) forecasts grain and oilseed production in 2024 at 76.1 MMT, down from 82.6 MMT the previous year. Wheat production is estimated at 20.0 MMT, and corn production at 26.3 MMT. The association expects the slowdown in production to adversely affect exports, which are estimated at 43.7 MMT in 2024/25, compared to the 53.1 MMT expected this season.

Brazil’s Conab agency has lowered its corn production forecast by 0.9 MMT to 112.8 MMT, attributing the decrease to reduced planting areas for the second corn crop.

Heavy rains in Argentina could lead to excessive soil moisture, potentially hindering the upcoming months’ harvest, a meteorologist from Applied Climatology Consulting Firm (CCA) told Reuters. Corn and soybean harvests are expected to begin at the end of March and early April.

Wheat stocks in India’s state reserves have fallen to 9.7 MMT, the lowest level since 2017. The decline in wheat stocks is due to low wheat production in 2022 and 2023, an import ban, and government market interventions.

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