SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – March 06, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Tuesday, grain futures declined. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.51/bu ($202/mt; -2.3% compared to Monday). May Euronext wheat fell to €190.25/mt ($207/mt; -1.6%). U.S. corn ended the day at $4.26/bu ($168/mt; -0.9%).

During trading, Chicago and Paris wheat prices touched new contract lows of $5.46/bu and €188.5/mt, respectively. Funds’ selling likely put pressure on CBOT prices. Open interest in the May wheat contract on Tuesday increased by 8,000 contracts to 205,000.

Brazil’s Patria Agronegocios estimates the country’s total corn production at 110.3 MMT, 16% below last year’s figures. The second corn crop is estimated at 80.0 MMT, a 22% decrease from the previous year.

Indonesia is expected to increase its wheat imports by 5% in 2024 compared to last year, according to the Indonesian Flour Producers Association. Indonesia is among the largest wheat importers, with wheat imports in 2023 estimated at 10.9 MMT.

From March to May, drier weather is expected in Argentina compared to recent months, reports the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Exchange analysts anticipate a change in weather due to the end of the El Niño phenomenon and the likely return of La Niña.

On March 8, the USDA will release a new WASDE report. Market participants surveyed by Reuters do not expect significant revisions to wheat production and ending stock estimates. However, analysts anticipate a reduction in the estimate for corn ending stocks to 320.4 MMT, down by 1.7 MMT from the February report. Analysts also expect a decrease in Brazil’s corn production estimate by 2.0 MMT to 122.0 MMT.

Algeria’s OAIC agency purchased between 600,000 and 870,000 metric tons of wheat at $227-228/mt (C&F) in an international tender, traders report. A significant portion of the grain is expected to be supplied from the Black Sea region, including Russia.

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