SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – June 28, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Thursday, U.S. wheat futures surged. The September SRW wheat contract closed at $5.79/bu ($213/mt; up 3.4% compared to Wednesday). The September Euronext wheat contract rose to €227.25/mt ($243/mt; up 1.7%). The September U.S. corn contract fell to $4.22/bu ($166/mt; down 0.7%).

U.S. wheat sales exceeded market expectations, according to USDA data. For the week ending June 20, 0.67 million metric tons (mmt) were sold, vs the market estimate range of 0.20-0.60 mmt.

The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its global corn production estimate by 3 mmt to 1.223 billion metric tons, reflecting higher estimates for Brazil. The wheat production estimate was lowered by 2 mmt to 793 mmt, mainly due to a reduced forecast for Russia. IGC analysts estimate Russian wheat production at 81.8 mmt, down 3.7 mmt from the previous month.

Statistics Canada reported the country’s wheat planting areas. Wheat planting covered 10.8 million hectares, compared to the market estimate of 10.9 million hectares and the same figure as last year.

Wheat planting in Argentina advanced by 16 percentage points in a week due to favorable weather, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported. As of June 27, planting was 81% complete. Corn harvesting in the country was 55% complete.

The European Commission raised its 2024 soft wheat production forecast by 1.7 mmt to 121.9 mmt. The corn production forecast was lowered by 3.8 mmt to 64.8 mmt, and barley production was reduced by 0.5 mmt to 53.4 mmt.

In the Rostov region (Russia’s #1 wheat producer), more than 445,000 metric tons of early grain and legume crops were harvested from 140,000 hectares, with an average yield of 3.18 mt/ha, said regional Minister of Agriculture Konstantin Rachalovsky.

Saudi Arabia’s GFSA will hold a tender on June 28 for the supply of 595,000 metric tons of wheat for delivery in September-December.

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