SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – June 25, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Monday, the decline in grain futures slowed. The September SRW wheat contract closed at $5.76/bu ($211/mt; down 0.8% compared to Friday). The September Euronext wheat contract fell to €222.25/mt ($239/mt; down 1.0%). The September U.S. corn contract closed at $4.39/bu ($173/mt; down 0.2%).

As of June 20, Russian farmers have harvested 1.7 million metric tons (mmt) of grain and legumes with an average yield of 4.72 mt/ha, reported the Grain Exporters Union, citing data from the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. Farmers harvested 1.1 mmt of barley with a yield of 5.68 mt/ha and 250,000 mt of wheat with a yield of 5.25 mt/ha.

The harvest of Brazil’s second corn crop was completed on 34% of the area as of June 20, compared to 9% on the same date last year, reported AgRural.

A moderate La Niña weather event in 2024 reduces risks for Argentine farmers, said analysts at the Rosario Exchange. Earlier, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) lowered the forecast for La Niña intensity.

The Indian government has limited the allowable stock volume for traders in an attempt to slow the rise in wheat prices, said Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra. He noted that the government is considering various price regulation options, including reducing and cutting import taxes.

The share of U.S. corn crops in good to excellent condition fell to 69% (down 2 percentage points from last week and 1 percentage point from analysts’ expectations), according to data from the USDA.

According to the USDA, the winter wheat harvest is 41% complete, compared to an average analyst estimate of 40%.

Egypt’s GASC will hold a tender for wheat delivery on June 25, with delivery scheduled for August 21-31 and/or September 1-15.

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