SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – June 14, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Thursday, U.S. wheat prices rose. The July SRW wheat contract closed at $6.20/bu ($228/mt; +0.5% compared to Wednesday). The September Euronext wheat contract fell to €238.50/mt ($256/mt; -0.6%). The July U.S. corn contract rose to $4.58/bu ($181/mt; +0.9%).

U.S. wheat sales in the first week of June were below market expectations, according to USDA data. The USDA estimates sales at 0.22 MMT compared to market expectations in the range of 0.25-0.60 MMT.

Brazil’s Conab agency increased its corn production estimate by 2.5 MMT to 114.1 MMT.

In Argentina, 46% of the planned wheat acreage has been planted, 21 percentage points higher than the previous week, reported the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Analysts from the exchange noted potential planting delays due to a lack of moisture in the topsoil in the northern part of the country.

Strategie Grains lowered its estimate for European soft wheat production in 2024/25 by 1.7 MMT compared to May, to 121.8 MMT.

The probability of La Niña forming from July to September is 65%, according to analysts from the U.S. National Weather Service. La Niña could lead to higher temperatures and reduced rainfall in some regions of North and South America.

India’s import tax on wheat will remain unchanged, according to a statement from the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food, and Public Distribution.

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