SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – June 13, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Wednesday, wheat prices declined. The July SRW wheat contract closed at $6.17/bu ($227/mt; -1.5% compared to Tuesday). The September Euronext wheat contract fell to €240.00/mt ($259/mt; -2.6%). The July U.S. corn contract rose to $4.54/bu ($179/mt; +1.1%).

The USDA released a new WASDE report. The estimate for global wheat ending stocks in 2024/25 was 252.3 MMT (-1.3 MMT compared to May; +1.1 MMT compared to market expectations). Corn stocks were estimated at 310.8 MMT (-1.5 MMT; +0.2 MMT).

The USDA lowered its estimate for Russian wheat production by 5.0 MMT to 83.0 MMT and export estimates by 4.0 MMT to 48.0 MMT. The estimate for corn production was lowered by 0.6 MMT to 15.4 MMT.

The USDA kept South American corn production estimates unchanged, contrary to market expectations. The USDA estimates Argentine corn production at 53.0 MMT compared to market expectations of 50.9 MMT, and Brazilian corn production at 122.0 MMT compared to the market estimate of 121.0 MMT.

From June 1 to 12, Ukraine exported 1.4 MMT of grain, unchanged from the previous year and 0.4 MMT less than the previous month.

Mexico’s Ministry of Agriculture estimated corn production in the October 2023-March 2025 season at 25.15 MMT, down 9% from the previous year. The decline in corn production due to drought may increase Mexico’s dependence on U.S. imports.

The Rosario Exchange estimated Argentine wheat production in 2024/25 at 21 MMT, which could be the highest result since 2021/22. The exchange estimated previous season’s wheat production at 14.5 MMT.

Argentina will begin exporting corn to China at the start of the next marketing year in July, reported the LatinAmerican Post. All necessary conditions for the importing country have been met, and restrictions have been lifted.

The Egyptian company GASC purchased 460,000 mt of wheat from Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine at a price of $265-270/mt C&F.

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