SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – July 10, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Tuesday, grain futures were recovering after Monday’s drop. The September SRW wheat contract closed at $5.72/bushel ($210/mt; +0.3% compared to Monday). The September Euronext wheat contract jumped to €226.00/mt ($244/mt; +2.1%). The September U.S. corn contract closed at $3.94/bushel ($155/mt; +0.2%).

The French Ministry of Agriculture released its first estimate for the 2024 soft wheat harvest. Production is expected to drop to 29.65 million tons, the lowest level since 2020. Last year, wheat production was 35.1 million tons.

EU soft wheat exports in 2023/24 totalled 31.0 million tons, down from 31.6 million tons the previous year, according to preliminary data from the European Commission. The data from the European Commission does not include export figures from France and Bulgaria.

On Tuesday night, the port of Odesa was attacked by missiles. According to local authorities, the attack damaged warehouse facilities and cargo vehicles, and several people were killed.

The USDA will release the WASDE report on Friday. Market participants expect an increase in the U.S. corn production forecast for 2024/25 by 5.1 million tons to 382.5 million tons. Ending stocks could rise by 4.3 million tons to 57.7 million tons.

Global wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 are expected to increase by 0.3 million tons compared to the June estimate, reaching 252.6 million tons, according to the USDA. Corn stocks are expected to rise by 1.2 million tons to 312.0 million tons.

12.5% wheat bids in deep-sea ports decreased from June to July by 16% to 15,250 rub/mt (excluding VAT), as per SovEcon estimate. This marks the most significant drop in prices at least since September 2023. Ruble prices declined amid unfavorable global market conditions and an improved outlook for the Russian wheat crop.

SovEcon is hosting a webinar on Black Sea grain market in 2024/25. Join us next Thursday, July 11; 10:30AM US Eastern / 4:30PM Central European / 5:30PM Moscow. Check out our website to find out more

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