SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – July 1, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Friday, grain futures declined again. The September SRW wheat contract closed at $5.73/bu ($211/mt; down 1.0% compared to Thursday). The September Euronext wheat contract fell to €224.75/mt ($241/mt; down 1.1%). The September U.S. corn contract dropped to $4.07/bu ($160/mt; down 3.6%).

The pressure on prices came from the U.S. grain planting report, which showed higher-than-expected acreage. U.S. corn planting exceeded expectations by 1.3%, reaching 36.6 million hectares. Wheat planting totaled 18.9 million hectares, 1% below the average estimate; however, wheat prices still declined under the pressure from corn.

U.S. corn stocks totaled 126.8 million metric tons (mmt; up 22.6 mmt from last year; 3.0 mmt above the market estimate), and wheat stocks were 19.1 mmt (up 3.6 mmt year-on-year; 0.5 mmt above the estimate).

From June 1 to June 28, Ukraine exported 3.6 mmt of grain compared to 3.7 mmt a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy. Total season exports reached 50.5 mmt, up from 49.0 mmt last year.

Rainfall in India was 11% below normal for June, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). All regions, except for the south, received below-normal rainfall.

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