SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – January 30, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea agricultural markets research

On Monday, grain prices declined. The March SRW contract closed at $5.93/bu ($218/mt; -1.1% from Friday). March French wheat dropped to a contract low at €213.75/mt ($232/mt; -0.5%). The March corn contract ended the day at $4.40/bu ($173/mt; -1.3%).

Decline in wheat prices was influenced by lower than expected U.S. export figures. USDA data showed that only 265 tmt of wheat were exported for the week ending January 25, compared to the anticipated 350-550 tmt.

The strengthening of the DXY index also pressured U.S. grain prices. On Monday, the DXY index closed at 103.6, an increase of 0.2% from Friday.

Favorable weather conditions in South America continue to exert pressure on corn prices.

Brazil’s progress in corn harvesting is outpacing last year, with 15.3% harvested as of January 26, compared to 12.1% at the same time in the previous year, as reported by SAFRAS & Mercado.

The European Commission has raised its forecast for the EU’s soft wheat stock at the end of the 2023/24 season to 19.1 mmt, an increase of 0.7 mmt. Stocks as of the end of last season were 19.4 mmt.

India’s wheat harvest is benefitting from the current cold weather, according to Reuters and local monitoring services. However, there is a risk that a sudden warm spell in the coming months could negatively impact yields and lead to a potential need for grain imports.

The ruling party in Latvia has decided to ban the import of grain from Russia and Belarus, reports Delfi. Legislation concerning the ban is expected to be finalized by late February.

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