SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – February 14, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Tuesday, U.S. grain prices were flat. The March SRW wheat contract closed at $5.97/bu ($219/mt; unchanged compared to Monday). Euronext wheat prices rose to €209.00/mt ($224/mt; +0.2%). U.S. corn ended the day at $4.31/bu ($170/mt; unchanged compared to Monday).

The strengthening U.S. dollar, following the release of inflation data, limited grain price gains. The DXY index rose to 104.9 (+0.7% compared to Monday).

According to a survey conducted by Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, corn planting areas in Ukraine are expected to decrease by 9%. Surveyed farmers also plan to increase spring wheat plantings by 2% and spring barley by 7%.

From the start of the season until February 12, Ukraine exported 25.5 MMT of grain, 3.6 MMT less than the same period last year, as reported by Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food. Analysts from the UK Foreign Office believe Ukraine will be able to export all planned grain by the end of the season if current shipment rates continue.

France’s Ministry of Agriculture has revised down its estimate for winter wheat planting areas by 0.1 million hectares to 4.4 million hectares. The revised estimate is 7.7% lower than last year’s figure. The reduction in planting areas is attributed to rainy weather during the planting period.

EU wheat exports since the start of the season until early February totaled 18.7 MMT, according to the European Commission. This is down from 20.2 MMT exported by mid-February last year. The Commission’s data requires clarification as it lacks information on grain exports from Ireland and Bulgaria.

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