SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – April 9, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Monday, U.S. wheat futures slightly declined. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.66/bu ($208/mt; -0.3% compared to Friday). Euronext wheat prices rose to €203.75/mt ($221/mt; +0.4%). U.S. corn closed at $4.35/bu ($171/mt; +0.3%).

Wheat production in India for 2024 is expected to be at 105 MMT, 6% below last year’s level, according to the Federation of Indian Roller Flour Mills.

The Orenburg region, Altai Krai, and the Chuvash Republic have declared a state of emergency due to floods damaging agriculture, reported by the National Union of Agricultural Insurers (NSA). According to the union, insured winter crops are located in these regions. The state of emergency in the Orenburg region has been in effect since April 4 due to abnormal flooding.

On April 8, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree transferring the assets of the “AgroTerra” holding to Rosimushchestvo. The holding, created by the American company NCH Capital Inc., is among the top twenty largest agro-holdings in Russia.

The condition of 56% of U.S. winter wheat crops is rated as good to excellent, unchanged from last week and significantly higher than 27% a year ago.

The USDA will publish a new WASDE report on April 11. Market participants anticipate an increase in the ending U.S. wheat stock estimates by 0.5 MMT to 18.8 MMT and a decrease in ending corn stocks estimates by 1.8 MMT to 53.4 MMT.

Market estimates for global ending wheat stocks are slightly higher than the March WASDE at 251.9 MMT (+0.3 MMT), while corn stocks are significantly lower at 316.7 MMT (-2.9 MMT).

Analysts expect a decrease in the corn production forecast for Argentina by 0.4 MMT to 55.6 MMT, and in Brazil by 2.2 MMT to 121.8 MMT.

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