SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – April 3, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Tuesday, grain futures declined. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.45/bu ($200/mt; -2.1% from Monday). French wheat quotes dropped to €201.75/mt ($217/mt; -0.9%). U.S. corn finished at $4.26/bu ($168/mt; -1.8%).

Futures were pressured by expectations of favorable weather across most U.S. grain-growing regions.

Soft wheat exports from the EU from July 1 to March 27 totaled 23.0 MMT, down from 23.9 MMT year-over-year.

The USDA’s attaché in Brazil has lowered its 2023/24 corn production forecast to 122 MMT, 2 MMT below the estimate in March’s WASDE. Corn production for 2024/25 is projected at 129 MMT.

In the UK, 34% of winter wheat crops are rated as good to excellent, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (ADHB). Last year, 90% of crops were in good condition, but this season’s crops have been significantly affected by heavy rainfall over the winter. Against this backdrop, ADHB has increased its wheat import estimate for 2023/24 by 0.25 MMT to 2.0 MMT, the highest level since 2020/21.

India has asked global and local grain traders to refrain from purchasing grain from the new crop, Reuters reports, citing sources. The government aims to replenish state reserves, which have decreased due to active sales over the past few years.

Wheat stocks in the South of Russia hit record high amid sluggish sales, SovEcon said in its Stocks Report.

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