SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – April 2, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Monday, grain futures declined. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.57/bu ($205/mt; -0.5% compared to Friday). U.S. corn closed at $4.34/bu ($171/mt; -1.8%). Trading on the Matif exchange did not occur due to Easter holidays.

The strengthening of the U.S. dollar exerted pressure on the prices. The DXY index closed at a peak since November at 104.9 (+0.4% compared to Friday).

U.S. export sales last week exceeded expectations, according to the USDA. Wheat shipments were 499 TMT against an estimate of 275-425 TMT; corn was 1.43 MMT versus an estimate of 800-1,380 TMT.

56% of U.S. winter wheat crops are in good/excellent condition, reports the USDA. In contrast, only 28% of the crops were rated in good/excellent condition at the same time last year due to drought conditions.

According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the country’s grain exports in March totaled 5.2 MMT, 10% lower than in February.

StoneX has lowered its forecast for Brazil’s safrinha corn production by 0.2 MMT to 96.1 MMT.

The Saudi company GFSA purchased 795 TMT of wheat in a tender. A portion of the grain will be supplied from Black Sea countries.

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