SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – April 16, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Monday, U.S. grain prices declined. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.52/bushel ($203/mt; -0.8% compared to Friday). Euronext French wheat prices rose to €203.75/mt ($216/mt; +0.1%). U.S. corn fell to $4.31/bushel ($170/mt; -0.9%).

Prices were pressured by favorable weather forecasts in the U.S. Next week, the National Weather Service (NWS) predicts precipitation above normal across most agricultural regions.

According to Reuters journalists citing four sources, a deal on safe maritime navigation in the Black Sea between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by Turkey, has fallen through. Sources say Kyiv withdrew from the deal after two months of negotiations. Previously, Ukrainian representatives were unwilling to sign the document but agreed to Turkey announcing it, Reuters sources report.

By April 14, 6% of the U.S. corn planting area had been sown, against analysts’ expectations of 7%, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The share of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition dropped by 1 percentage point to 55%, meeting market expectations.

U.S. wheat export sales were slightly above market expectations. According to the USDA, 0.55 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat were shipped in the week ending April 11, compared to market estimates of 0.35-0.53 MMT.

On Monday, the USDA reported that exporters sold 165,000 metric tons (MT) of corn to Mexico, of which 135,000 MT will be shipped this season.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) expects precipitation in the country’s main agricultural regions to be average or above from June to August.

India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences expects monsoon rainfall from June to September to be 106% of the norm. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts rainfall to range from 96-104% of average.

The Egyptian company GASC will hold a tender on April 16 for the supply of wheat with payment delays of 180 and 270 days.

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