SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – April 12, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Thursday, grain prices declined. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.52/bushel ($203/mt; -1.2% compared to Wednesday). Euronext French wheat prices dropped to €201.00/mt ($216/mt; -1.7%). U.S. corn closed at $4.29/bushel ($169/mt; -1.3%).

The bearish WASDE report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture put pressure on the prices.

The USDA raised its estimate of U.S. wheat ending stocks to 19.0 million metric tons (MMT), up by 0.2 MMT from the market average. The department lowered its estimate of U.S. corn ending stocks to 53.9 MMT, up by 0.5 MMT from the market estimate. Global wheat stocks are estimated at 258.3 MMT, down 0.8 MMT from market estimates. Corn stocks were assessed at 318.3 MMT, up 1.6 MMT.

The USDA left its estimate of Brazil’s corn production unchanged at 124.0 MMT, which is 2.2 MMT higher than the market estimate. In April, Brazil’s Conab estimated corn production at 111.0 MMT.

The department lowered its estimate of corn production in Argentina by 1.0 MMT to 55.0 MMT, 0.6 MMT lower than the market estimate.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its corn production forecast by 2.5 MMT to 49.5 MMT. Analysts attribute the lowered forecast to dry weather and crop diseases.

Corn sales in the U.S. for the week ending April 4 totaled 0.3 MMT, compared to an estimate of 0.8-1.3 MMT, according to the USDA. This marks the lowest level since the start of the marketing year.

The European agency Strategie Grains raised its estimate of wheat production in the EU for 2024/25 by 0.2 MMT to 121.8 MMT. The agency expects production next season to be 3% lower than the current season.

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