SovEcon raises forecast for Russian wheat crop

The forecast was revised amid high yields in Southern Russia and improved crop prospects in other regions.

SovEcon has increased its forecast for Russian wheat production in the 2024/25 season by 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) to 84.1 MMT. The forecast was revised amid high yields in Southern Russia and improved crop prospects in other regions.

The production forecast for wheat in the South has been raised by 1.7 MMT to 33.2 MMT, reflecting relatively high initial yields. 

In the Central and Volga regions, the wheat production forecasts have been increased by 0.6 MMT to 18.1 MMT and by 0.8 MMT to 17.6 MMT, respectively. Timely rainfall has improved crop prospects in the areas, which had previously suffered from drought and frosts.

The wheat production forecasts for the Urals and Siberia have also been adjusted upward by 0.1 MMT to 3.9 MMT and by 0.2 MMT to 10.3 MMT, respectively. These regions are looking good after receiving ample precipitation earlier in the season.

In 2023, Russian farmers harvested 92.8 MMT of wheat, with a five-year average of 86.7 MMT.

Improved prospects for the new crop may boost the supply of Russian wheat.

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