SovEcon: Russia could harvest second largest wheat crop on record

Andrey Sizov 22.08.2023

Last week, SovEcon boosted its wheat crop forecast to 92.1 million metric tons (MMT) from 87.1 MMT a month prior, according to a new report. This projection would mark it as the second-largest crop in recorded history, only behind the record-breaking number of the previous year. The revision was made in light of rising yields in the Central and Volga regions.

Yields in the Central region are averaging 5.0 metric tons per hectare (mt/ha), slightly higher than last year. Based on analysis of satellite and meteorological data, SovEcon estimates the crop condition in this macro-region significantly above average. Moreover, crops in the area have been benefiting from moisture levels, rising amid the rains in July and August.

During the end of July and beginning of August, conditions for crops in the Volga region also improved, driven by the rainfall. While some areas still face moisture deficits, SovEcon assesses the overall crop conditions as close to average.

SovEcon’s crop projections for the Central region stand at 21.1 MMT, up from 18.9 MMT a month earlier. For the Volga region, the estimate is 17.8 MMT, revised up from 15.7 MMT.

The previous year’s wheat crop totaled 104.2 MMT. On average, crops over the past five years have amounted to 82.6 MMT.

The impressive Russian crop, combined with record stocks, will stimulate exports and exert pressure on global prices. However, raising the overall grain supply estimate won’t significantly increase export projections due to Russia’s infrastructure constraints.