Andrey Sizov
18.12.2024
SovEcon has reduced its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2025 by 3.0 million metric tons (MMT) to 78.7 MMT. This year’s wheat crop is estimated at 81.9 MMT, with a five-year average of 88.2 MMT. The 2025 crop is expected to be significantly lower than last year’s and the average, due to the poor condition of winter crops.
The production forecast for winter wheat was lowered by 3.6 MMT to 50.7 MMT due to deteriorating crop conditions. As per SovEcon estimate, based on data from Roshydromet (RHM), about 37% of crops are in poor condition, the highest level in at least the last 20 years. The pre-harvest winter wheat area has been reduced to 14.9 million hectares (mln ha), down from 15.4 mln ha, amid expectations of higher winterkill losses due to cold weather or ice crust.
Some winter crops have not yet started vegetating and will begin developing only after winter, assuming they survive. Due to that, winter wheat yield is now projected at 3.4 metric tons per hectare (mt/ha), down from 3.5 mt/ha in November.
In contrast, the production forecast for spring wheat has been increased by 0.6 MMT to 27.9 MMT driven by expectations for a larger planted area, now forecast at 13.3 mln ha, up from 13.0 mln ha previously.
This year’s dry autumn weather affected the condition of the winter crops. In the last three months, precipitation in the Center and Volga regions was 60-80% of the norm, and in the South, 40-60% of the norm.
We cautiously compare Roshydromet data with previous years. Over the past decades, Russia’s climate has shifted. Winters have become noticeably milder, reducing winterkill risks, and the autumn growing season has lengthened. This year, this could mean that some southern fields may have continued vegetating into the second half of November, which might not have been fully accounted for in RHM’s late-November assessment.
The record poor condition of wheat crops in the world’s top exporter may support global prices.
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