SovEcon lowers Russian wheat crop forecast

Forecast was revised amid worsening crop prospects in Siberia and the South.

Andrey Sizov 20.09.2023

The wheat crop for 2023/24 is projected at 91.6 million metric tons (MMT), down 0.5 MMT from the previous estimate, according to a SovEcon Report. Forecast was revised amid worsening crop prospects in Siberia and the South.

The revised forecast comes as the estimated wheat yield in Siberia was cut by 0.9 MMT to 9.2 MMT. The outlook in the region deteriorated due to heavy rains over the past month.

In the last 30 days, Siberia received precipitation ranging between 110-150% of the norm. Excessive rainfall hampers harvesting operations and presents a substantial risk of crop lodging and sprouting. SovEcon evaluates the condition of crops in the Urals and Siberia as below average.

In the South, wheat production estimates were cut by 0.5 MMT to 37.9 MMT due to a significant drop in yield at the end of the wheat harvesting campaign in the region.

Part of the losses was offset by some increase in the spring wheat crop estimates for the Volga and Ural regions. In the Volga Valley, the crop estimate was upped by 0.4 MMT to 18.2 MMT, and in the Urals, it was increased by 0.5 MMT to 4.1 MMT.

The US Department of Agriculture estimates the 2023/24 Russian wheat crop at 85 MMT.

Despite a slight reduction in the Russian wheat crop estimate, wheat supply will remain high, continuing to exert pressure on global prices.